highsurfwarning

Computer Projection of Possible Late Season Storm 11/7

2006-11-07T02:31:00.000-08:00

Computer forecast showing a potential
tropical storm west of Kaua'i 11/14

Click image for enlargement.

THIS IS ONLY A COMPUTER PROJECTION
OF A POSSIBLE SCENARIO!!!

Latest Global Warming Roundup 10/30

2006-10-30T18:40:00.000-08:00

A summary of recent counter-arguments against Global Warming.

A hui hou, Keoki

The Metaphysics of the "Turbulent Burst"; Recaping T.D. 4-C 10/28

2006-10-29T01:33:00.000-08:00

In the 70s, Colin Ramage (then chairman of the UH Dept of Meteorology) wrote a monograph which was sort of his Theory of Everything at the time. It had the term "turbulent burst" in the title. I've lost my copy but that concept stuck with me.

With it, he foreshadowed the emerging Chaos Theory fad that spanned many scientific enterprises. Chaos Theory was popularized by the image of a butterfly flapping its wings in the jungle of the Amazon in the spring, ultimately causing a tornado at some remote location months or years hence. In other words, a tiny insignificant event was leveraged through a series of unlikely connections to a major event that seemed unrelated and surely unpredicted. Ramage ruminated that a political assassination was the analog of a turbulent burst in politics and history. He was probably thinking of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand which ignited WWI. A snarl of trade and security treaties excalated the incident into war.

You could look at the implosion of the Republican Party due to the peccadilloes of a relatively unimportant member as the spark that set off an disaster waiting to happen. It's for this reason that I always take forecasts about stock market averages and all kinds of things including terrorism with a grain of salt because prognosticators seem to be unable to factor in turbulent bursts.
________________________________________________

Tropical Depression 4-C formed in the ITCZ SW of the Islands in the middle of October. It only lasted a couple of days, but later got sucked into the prefrontal moisture of a front which hammered the windward side - and especially the Puna/Ka'u slopes - of the Big Island, with flooding rains. These rains wouldn't have been so intense without the latent tropical organization and energy. 4-C had more impact than any of the remnant tropical cyclones which approached from the East this season. This is always the case, except for the occasional high surf.

Any disturbance that developes south of the Islands or moves there from the east is much more of a threat than those that approach from the east(see earlier notes Home Stretch for Hurricane Season 10/3; My Philosophy of the Hurricane Threat in Hawai'i 7/19) below. Models are showing the development of a disturbance SW of the Islands in a few days, threatening heavy rain at the end of this week.

A hui hou, GM

Trade Wind Surge Depicted 10/26

2006-10-26T03:49:00.000-07:00

This GOES picture of the Eastern Pacific from Wednesdy night
shows a surge in NE winds off the coast of California.

This is a winter phenomenon usuallly associated with strong
Santana (or Santa Ana) winds and the NWS has issued a high
wind warning for parts of S California. It is fanning the
deadly brushfire that has broken out in Riverside. Sometimes
these surges reach the Islands as blustery winds, but this
one won't.

A hui hou, GM

Newspeak from Newsweek 10/24

2006-10-24T22:27:00.000-07:00

Apparently taking notice of the widespread circulation of previous climate change forecast busts by the Mainstream Media, Newsweek has revisited an article it published in the 70s warning of the coming ice age.

Remember Global Cooling? Why scientists find climate change so hard to predict.

In the current reassessment they state:

"Although the intricate web of positive and negative feedbacks that control climate are still not fully understood,...the tools scientists have at their disposal now—vastly more data, incomparably faster computers and infinitely more sophisticated mathematical models—render any forecasts from 1975 as inoperative as the predictions being made around the same time about the inevitable triumph of communism."

The "intricate web of positive and negative feedbacks" are indeed not fully understood and will probably never be fully understood. Until they are, "faster computers and infinitely more sophisticated mathematical models" will only result in what used to be called GIGO - "garbage in, garbage out". Why haven't climate models been able to predict a short-term climate phenonmenon like el Niño? (See my article below.)

BTW, the current el Niño is moderate and it is impossible to predict whether it will become stronger. A moderate el Niño leaves plenty of room for rain this winter in the Islands.

A hui hou, Keoki

Climate Forecasting 10/8

2006-10-08T18:17:00.000-07:00

A common observation among operational weather forecasters is that while computer models have improved over recent years, they only demonstrate skill over a few days, and with a broad brush over ~ a week - 10 days. This raises questions of how climate models can make climate predictions extending years and even decades into the future.

El Niño/la Niña is a significant climatic fluctuation that extends over many months and has gloabal influence. The notion of el Niño has gained traction in recent decades because many examples have been observed although none of them are exactly alike. Yet the current el Niño was not predicted by the climate models assigned to this task, and the recognition of its existence was only detected after the unmistakeable signs were there. Even now, it is an article of faith that it will continue through next spring as currently forecast.

If these climate models can't yet forecast el Niño, how can climate models forecast such a momentus event as global warming? The answer would seem to be that there is a disconnect between events at one time and space scale and another. In other words, data that is used for short-term forecasts is irrelevant for events at a larger scale. If this is true, it raises serious questions about how models are constructed and initialized. If the proponents of global warming want an informed public to believe them, they are going to have to answer these questions.

A hui hou, GM

Home Stretch for Hurricane Season 10/3

2006-10-03T22:02:00.000-07:00

Various authorities have down-graded the expected severity of the current hurricane season several times and have just about called it quits for the year. The 2006 season stands in stark contrast to the hyperactive 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons which prompted speculation that Global Warming was wreaking havoc on the climate. But the pendulum has swung wildly back to hyperinactivity, demonstrating that short-term trends are extremely volitile when it comes to climatic variables.

In Hawai'i, I have argued frequently that 3 factors help guage the threat of hurricanes in the Islands. (See previous posts My Philosophy of the Hurricane Threat in Hawai'i 7/19 in the archives.) They are the multi-decadal frequency cycle which extends over decades; the presence or absence of el Niño conditions; and the location of an actual storm. Storms originating East of the Islands have never hit the Islands as hurricanes or tropical storms in recorded history, despite the constant hype by local media. Storms that form to the south or move there from the east are the only ones that have.

We are still in a multi-decadal low point for hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific; a high point for Atlantic hurricanes. We were in an el Niño neutral period, but that has changed to at least a weak el Niño positive condition. And we are entering the period of mid to late fall when storms can form south of the Islands or move south of the Islands from the East Pacific. The factors that would favor tropical storm or hurricane developement near the Islands have increased slightly although they remain very low.

A final factor to watch is increased activity in the Intertropical Convergence Zone south of the Islands (ITCZ). Increased activity often seems to happen because of cross-equatorial surface flow from southern hemisphere storms and cold fronts. This Southern Hemi storm activity is expected to increase this week, resulting in late-season southerly surf for the Islands and a possible increase in intertropical convergence.

Bottom line: the area south and southwest of the Islands should be monitored more closely for the next 6 weeks or so for the development of disturbances that could devolope in the manner that the few freak hurricanes have in the Islands.

A hui hou, GM

Recent Articles via Earth Obsevatory 9/26

2006-09-26T23:23:00.000-07:00

"The average temperature of the water near the top of Earth's oceans has significantly cooled since 2003. New research suggests global warming trends are not always steady in their effects on ocean temperatures."
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A rude contrarian source about junk science that will delight and outrage some readers.
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Antarctic Ozone Hole Nears Record (it was supposed to be shrinking after the ban of chlorofluorocarbins).
__________________________________________________________

And not from Earth Observatory: “Hot & Cold Media Spin: A Challenge To Journalists Who Cover Global Warming”

A hui hou, Keoki

Recent Big Picture Posts 9/20

2006-09-20T21:11:00.000-07:00

9:01:41 PM 9/14

Big Picture:

[…]

The ITCZ is active again far SE of the Big Island. Models show a disturbance and even a tropical storm eventually propagating W from the current disturbed location and passing harmlessly S and W of the Islands later next week. Models are weak in handling these tropical systems this far in advance. But the steering currents look very predictable and the historical chances of a system like this threatening the Islands are nil. It should be of interest only to shipping, and may mess up our S swell later next week.

[…]

A hui hou, Keoki

3:48:21 PM 9/13

Big Picture: high pressure will strengthen in the NE Pac, while fading in the NW Pac. Small storms will dig into the weaker high pressure ridge in the NW Pac and move rapidly NE, generating small NW swells during the next 10 days – two weeks. This large scale synoptic pattern is typical of el Niño. The renewed emphasis on el Niño shouldn’t be overdone because it’s too soon to tell how strong it will be. The Reuters writer typically used hyperbolic language to describe it – like Nancy Grace or Bill O’Reilly. Just as Chihuahuas and Great Danes are all dogs, there are many different manifestations of el Niño. In a strong one, the common expectation for the Islands is a dry winter and a lot of big, clean NW swells.

[…]

3:42:44 AM 9/13

Briefly: From the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 9/13 (this replaces its recent missive of ~ 9/9) :

"Typical El Niño effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley, the Pacific Northwest, and most of the U.S.-affiliated islands in the north tropical Pacific."

I – and I expect many meteorologists – have been leaning this way for awhile. NCEP was unsure as recently as late August. Now they've taken a stand. What it means for Hawai'i remains to be seen.

Ciao for now, Keoki

El Niño/la Niña 9/13

2006-09-14T02:24:00.000-07:00

Here are some broad-brush graphical
illustrations of the expected effects of
el Niño/la Niña (from NOAA):

(click image to enlarge)

Details at the wikipedia article.
The bottom illustration of la Niña
strongly resembles the persistant
pattern we experienced during the
awful late winter rains of 2006.

See previous blog entries for 3/26
and 3/31 about last winter.

A hui hou, GM

NCEP Predicts El Niño for Winter '06-'07 9/13

2006-09-13T06:06:00.000-07:00

From the Nat'l Ctr for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 9/13 :

"Typical El Niño effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley, the Pacific Northwest, and most of the U.S.-affiliated islands in the north tropical Pacific."

A hui hou, Keoki

Some Recent Big Picture Updates 9/9

2006-09-09T22:12:00.000-07:00

3:31:38 PM 9/8

Big Picture: uneventful trade wind weather continues through at least the early part of next week. The first winter trough of the season will develop NW of the Islands next week, causing trades to diminish and become more E’ly by midweek. So far, that is the only change it will cause locally, as a front stalls well NW of Kaua’i late next week. The only hint of organized wetness lurks over 10 days away. Until then, just minor variations in trade wind showers.

The Climate Prediction Center released its latest ENSO (el Niño/southern oscillation) outlook yesterday; the outlook is for a neutral condition to continue for the next two months, followed by a vague tendency toward a weak el Niño.

[…]

A hui hou, Keoki

5:02:52 PM 9/7

Big Picture: typical breezy trades continue with the seasonal changes recently noted. The remnants of Ioke are racing across the fringe of the N Pac and a winter-like trough is expected to drop into the middle of the N Pac in coming days. It will have little effect locally except to advertise the end of summer and cause trades to decrease a bit next week while becoming more E/ESE.

[…]

The S swell is peaking with some overhead sets and will fade slowly over the weekend. Next week is looking much smaller again until the following weekend, while the week of 9/17 is looking very crunchy and maybe even bigger than the current action due to storms E of NZ expected in the next 7 days.

The N shore is due for the first hint of winter sometime this weekend and early next week. Minor short-period wave action should continue next week.

Windward wind waves will be a typical shore pound associated with typical trades.

A hui hou, Keoki

8:47:31 PM 9/6

Big Picture: the high pressure system that has filled the N Pac for most of the summer in a seasonal manner continues to retreat fitfully with troffiness continuing to insinuate itself into the N C’tl Pac, while local trades are undergoing more frequent small changes. Trades will continue light to moderate in coming days; trade wind moisture will also become more variable in a slippery manner which is likely to vary from day to day. Long term models continue to predict a more significant wet period toward the end of next week.

[…]

The current S swell will continue in the 3’+ range before fading over the weekend and next week looks a lot smaller (but not flat) until late next week. The tiny short-period N swell will fade tonight but tiny WNW swell could filter in at any time and the first small NW swell is expected late this weekend courtesy of ex-Ioke. Windward wind waves will be small and <2’ because of the light trades.

A hui hou, Keoki

10:51:31 PM 9/6

Big Picture: trade winds are firming up against a background of seasonal changes which are beginning to show troffiness develop in the N C’tl Pac as previously noted. The extra-tropical Typhoon Ioke will race NE then E into the Berring Sea and part of the Gulf of Alaska late this week and early next week, bringing an early winter storm to S Alaska and the Aleutians, and generating the first hint of NW swell for the Islands.

[…]

9:07:52 PM

Big Picture: trades are minimal as the seasonal trend to lighter trade winds continues. A trough is expected to develop in the N Pac near the Dateline, with the morphing circulation currently known as Typhoon Ioke recurving from the coast of Japan and racing across the N Pac into the trough. It will probably cause a stormy hit to the Aleutians later this week, while spinning off a small NW swell, the first in the season for Hawai’i. Long-term, the first hint of rainier weather lurks for mid-Septeber.

[…]

S swell is rocking the Christmas Island buoy and should be building late Tuesday for several days of solid overhead waves at S exposures. This will fade by the weekend and the following week will be quieter, but the season isn’t over.

Tiny N swell is causing barely surfable waves and is expected to pulse in a tiny trading range. On the horizon is a WNW swell from Typhoon Ioke which should build by late Sunday and be causing solid overhead waves by 9/11 (!!!). A small WNW swell could show up earlier. 2’ windwaves along windward exposures will continue, with some S wrap from the S swell.

[…]

A hui hou, Keoki

9:15:35 PM 9/3

Big Picture: trade winds continue against a larger backdrop of seasonal changes continuing to develop over the horizon as fall approaches. Typhoon Ioke will recurve to the N and then NE just before hitting Japan. Ioke will be steered by a polar jet that is beginning to show signs of dipping into the N C’tl Pac, generating NW swell and troffiness in the that region that could cause the first rainy weather near the Islands around mid-September.

[…]

Typhoon Ioke will likely cause a small 3’ WNW swell by Saturday and a larger one building late Sunday/Monday 9/10-11 next week. There could also be a short-period N swell by midweek to break the current flatness.

[…]

9:34:41 PM 9/2

Big Picture: trades are decreasing as expected while the high pressure system filling much of the N Pac begins to erode on its N periphery. Typhoon Ioke will recurve into this area and together with a synoptic low pressure system slowly generate the first hint of seasonal NW swell for the Islands. The details are still unfolding but it looks like we will see tiny increases from the N by midweek with a very slow increase from the NW and N over the next weekend and possibly solid overhead waves by 9/11.

[…]

5:00:23 PM 9/2

Big Picture: high pressure in the N Pac continues a slow seasonal weakening trend with faint stirrings of the first organized storm activity in the NW Pac next week and hints of wetter weather in the Islands the 3rd week of September. Hurricane John will pound lower Baja California before its remnants recurve NE into the U.S. dessert SW with serious monsoonal flooding potential early next week. Typhoon Ioke continues its slow slog NW towards the coast of Honshu and Hokkaido with landfall probable ~ Wednesday. It will cause serious high surf there, but whether it will recurve with enough integrity to affect N Pac storm activity is still uncertain.

[…]

S swell will hover under 2’ until late Sunday and a higher background next week due to a series S Hemi storms in the Roaring Forties and Furious Fifties this week. No big S swells on the horizon so far, but the season could end with a bang in the fall.

A hui hou, GM

4:41:20 PM 8/31

[…]

Ioke continues on its slow slog toward the coast of Japan as previously noted. It’s still uncertain whether it will recurve and maintain enough integrity to affect Island surf. Other stirrings in the W’lies in the NW Pac continue to look promising for the first little NW swell for months late next week.

[…]

Mantenganse actualidados con nosotros, Jorge

10:11:18 PM 8/30

[…]

Super Typhoon Ioke continues on its long slog into the NW Pac and now appears destined to crash into N Honshu and Hokaido next Wednesday. Whether it will recurve and generate swell for the Islands remains to be seen, but is a possibility. Giant surf on the Pac Coast of Japan will probably grab headlnes next week.

There are minor storms expected to stir in the NW Pac next week and start the ball slowly rolling for the first small surfable NW swell in many weeks. We may see this by 9/8.

Warriors fans: the outlook for Tuscaloosa this Saturday is for a slight chance of rain in the day, but partly cloudy skies and light winds for kickoff.

A hui hou, Keoki

5:01:27 PM 8/30

[…]

Super Typhoon Ioke continues its slow advance in the NW Pac as previously noted. The tropical circulations in the E Pac will have no effect on local weather except as a reminder that such storms have never had an effect on local weather in over 100 years except as a rare surf event or minor wind/rain event as they pass harmlessly by as trade wind disturbances. Yet Hawai’i pays for the catastrophic losses in other parts of the U.S. and world in insurance premiums –or even the unavailability of coverage – apparently without actuarial justification. As a periodic reminder, I posted a note on hurricanes in Hawai’i on www.highsurfwarning.blogspot.com which can be accessed through the link under the media player above.

[…]

A hui hou, Keoki

9:00:20 PM 8/29

[…]

Of interest to local residents with interests in Japan, Super Typhoon Ioke continues its relentless advance into the NW Pac towards Japan. High surf should begin to pound the entire Pac coast of Japan late this weekend and continue most of next week. Wave height will be at least 30’ face value and possibly much higher. Ioke lingers on long-range models through the 2nd week of September and makes its final assault on Kyushu ~ 9/12. From there it may progress into the N Pac. The longevity of this storm may become a record for a tropical circulation.

A hui hou, Keoki

4:56:26 PM 8/29

Big Picture: a conventional trade wind regime dominates local weather and will continue for the rest of the work week. High pressure which fills most of the N Pac continues to show a fitful retreat into fall. Super Typhoon Ioke is a big puka in the high pressure as it plows NW toward Japan (and Wake Island). The ultimate fate of the storm is still uncertain except that it will cause big surf along the whole E coast of Japan in coming days. There are vague hints of the first storm action in the NW Pac beginning to show in long-term models for the 2nd week of September.

[…]

A hui hou, Keoki

Wave Streets Form in Brisk Trades Over O'ahu 9/9

2006-09-09T18:56:00.000-07:00

Four streets of waves form over O'ahu as brisk trades hit
the Ko'olaus.

Clouds form at the crest of each wave, followed by
clearing in the trough.

A hui hou, GM

Some Recent Big Picture Updates 9/3

2006-09-04T00:38:00.000-07:00

4:51:25 PM 9/1

Big Picture: high pressure in the N Pac continues a slow seasonal weakening trend with faint stirrings of the first organized storm activity in the NW Pac next week and hints of wetter weather in the Islands the 3rd week of September. Hurricane John will pound lower Baja California before its remnants recurve NE into the U.S. dessert SW with serious monsoonal flooding potential early next week. Typhoon Ioke continues its slow slog NW towards the coast of Honshu and Hokkaido with landfall probable ~ Wednesday. It will cause serious high surf there, but whether it will recurve with enough integrity to affect N Pac storm activity is still uncertain.

[...]

N exposures will stay flat this weekend with barely longboardable waves next week and something slightly bigger possible late next week and the following weekend. Windward shore pound will drop below 2’ this weekend with the moderating trades.

[...]

A hui hou, GM

4:41:20 PM 8/31

(Little) Big Picture: little change in the outlook for mostly moderate trades decreasing this weekend bottoming out on Monday, followed by moderate trades again. With this minor change and small changes in upstream moisture and slightly disturbed embedded kinks, there is only a slight change possible over the holiday weekend which will require the usual now casting.

[...]

Ioke continues on its slow slog toward the coast of Japan as previously noted. It’s still uncertain whether it will recurve and maintain enough integrity to affect Island surf. Other stirrings in the W’lies in the NW Pac continue to look promising for the first little NW swell for months late next week.

[...]

Mantenganse actualidados con nosotros, Jorge

10:11:18 PM 8/30

Briefly: breezy trades and small surf continue as previously noted.

Super Typhoon Ioke continues on its long slog into the NW Pac and now appears destined to crash into N Honshu and Hokaido next Wednesday. Whether it will recurve and generate swell for the Islands remains to be seen, but is a possibility. Giant surf on the Pac Coast of Japan will probably grab headlnes next week.

[...]
Warriors fans: the outlook for Tuscaloosa this Saturday is for a slight chance of rain in the day, but partly cloudy skies and light winds for kickoff.

A hui hou, Keoki

5:01:27 PM 8/30

[...]

Super Typhoon Ioke continues its slow advance in the NW Pac as previously noted. The tropical circulations in the E Pac will have no effect on local weather except as a reminder that such storms have never had an effect on local weather in over 100 years except as a rare surf event or minor wind/rain event as they pass harmlessly by as trade wind disturbances. Yet Hawai’i pays for the catastrophic losses in other parts of the U.S. and world in insurance premiums –or even the unavailability of coverage – apparently without actuarial justification. As a periodic reminder, I posted a note on hurricanes in Hawai’i on www.highsurfwarning.blogspot.com which can be accessed through the link under the media player above.

[...]

A hui hou, Keoki

9:00:20 PM 8/29

[...]

Of interest to local residents with interests in Japan, Super Typhoon Ioke continues its relentless advance into the NW Pac towards Japan. High surf should begin to pound the entire Pac coast of Japan late this weekend and continue most of next week. Wave height will be at least 30’ face value and possibly much higher. Ioke lingers on long-range models through the 2nd week of September and makes its final assault on Kyushu ~ 9/12. From there it may progress into the N Pac. The longevity of this storm may become a record for a tropical circulation.

A hui hou, Keoki

4:56:26 PM 8/29

Big Picture: a conventional trade wind regime dominates local weather and will continue for the rest of the work week. High pressure which fills most of the N Pac continues to show a fitful retreat into fall. Super Typhoon Ioke is a big puka in the high pressure as it plows NW toward Japan (and Wake Island). The ultimate fate of the storm is still uncertain except that it will cause big surf along the whole E coast of Japan in coming days. There are vague hints of the first storm action in the NW Pac beginning to show in long-term models for the 2nd week of September.

An upper level low persists in some models, drifting W over or near the Islands this weekend. So far, it will only cause a weakening of trades during the weekend, followed by a slight strengthening next week. The low may increase trade wind showers slightly or add a weak convective component to local weather. It doesn’t look like anything that will seriously affect weekend weather but will require now casting.
[...]

A hui hou, Keoki

4:25:36 PM 8/28

Big Picture: normal trade winds are on tap in coming weeks as high pressure continues to fill the N Pac, and the small embedded disturbances from the ITCZ have quieted down. There is a persistent upper level low appearing in models drifting in from the E next weekend with only minor effect on local trade wind precip so far. Currently, a typical random pattern of upstream clouds should cause brief windward/mauka showers overnight, and Tuesday looks mostly sunny with a few minor AM showers possible.

Typhoon Ioke continues to plow into the NW Pac and the longest-range model continues to show that it will persist as a feature into next week. That and an Aleutian storm in the 2nd week of September could generate the first signs of life for N Shores before the middle of the month.

[...]

A hui hou, Keoki

3:55:23 PM 8/27

[...]

Hurricane Ioke continues its trek into the NW Pac. Models extend its life into two possibilities: approaching the coast of China in ~ 10 days or recurving towards Alaska.

[...]

No change for N shores except for an outside chance of a small NW swell from Ioke the 2nd week of September. Windward sides will see normal trade wind shore pound this week.

A hui hou, GM

3:53:25 PM 8/26

[...]

Hurricane Ioke will pass into the NW Pac overnight. Some compuer projections show this storm exploding into a hybrid mid-lattitude storm there and generating big surf for Japan late next week. These models also show the storm maintaining its identity for another 10 days, recurving in the far NW Pac. From there it could crash into S Alaska and later into the NW Canadian Pacific coast. These storms can be small and intense in their final throes so S Alaska and the Aleutians may be in for it.

[...]

2:48:18 PM 8/25

[...]

Hurricane Ioke will likely continue to be a feature on the weather map through the first few days of September as it wanders into the NW Pac. There is a chance of small, peaky W’ly waves emanating from it over the weekend, and a slight chance that Ioke could recurve enough to cause a NW swell later next week. Ioke is also likely to cause a rare SE swell along Japan later next week that will be different from the usual typhoon swell that happens there.

[...]

A hui hou, Keoki

11:07:39 PM 8/24

[...]

A note on the hurricanes in the E Pac: these hurricanes are fading or exiting Hawai’ian waters and add to the record of over 100 years of hurricanes that die before they get here or are diverted by the Big Island or move W of the Islands. Only 3 hurricanes have hit the Islands in recorded history. I refer my friend at Safeway to the article I wrote recently (My Philosophy of the Hurricane Threat in Hawai'i 7/19) and posted on the blog (click the link below the media player). Ioke is interesting because it is likely to wander into the NW Pac and remain an identifiable feature through the first week of September. It may even generate a NW swell before it’s over.

A hui hou, Keoki

Low Pressure Centers Near the Islands 8/23

2006-08-23T18:23:00.000-07:00

Checker board pattern of low pressure centers around
the Hawai'ian Islands ~ midday 8/23 (GOES visible
satellite).

Checkerboard pattern of lows on the surface pressure
analysis about 12 hours earlier.

Some of the surface/upper level centers haven't been
labelled because I didn't have time to play with Photo
Shop. The scattering of lows, especially in the Tropics,
is evidence of seasonal transition to fall.

A hui hou, GM

Recent Big Picture Archives 8/19

2006-08-19T19:57:00.000-07:00

4:18:30 PM 8/18 Big Picture: [...]Rumors that we will have an early winter season due to a new el Niño are fun but way early. All I see is vague hints of el Niño in slight positive sea surface temperature anomalies beginning to show along the equator E of the Dateline extending to S America. There is also the appearance of W’ly winds on the S side of the ITCZ. The Climate Prediction Center’s last forecast was for el Niño/la Niña neutral conditions until October, followed by a chance of a weak el Niño in the last 3 months of 2006. This allows enough wiggle room for a new el Niño to affect winter weather and waves in the Islands, but that’s about all anyone could say about it today. A hui hou, GM

4:41:39 PM 8/16 Big Picture: [...] The feature of note near the Island environment it the increasing activity in the InterTropical Convergence Zone to the S and SE. The ITCZ is flaring partly because of the increased storm activity in the S Hemi which causes associated fronts to push air across the equator into the N Hemi. Currently, T.S. Hector is on course for an early demise as previously noted. A disturbed area far SE of the Big Island is moving W. The GIFS model continues to show tropical circulations developing S and SE of the Islands. These systems will move W and then possible NW after passing the Islands with little effect locally. GIFS also develops a serious hurricane near the S coast of Mexico late next week, indicating that hurricane season is still focusing on the E Pacific, while the Atlantic/Caribbean remains dormant in sharp contrast to last season. If this storm develops, it, too, is likely to follow the path of most previous systems and have no effect on the Islands. A hui hou, GM

3:09:19 AM 8/16 Briefly II: [...] T.S. Hector far to the E is forecast to develop further, and then to die out even earlier than yesterday’s forecast and, like the 100+ year history of such storms, fade into insignificance. There is a tropical disturbance which appears to be developing ~ 700 miles SE of the Big Island and is about to come under favorable upper level winds that may allow it to develop briefly. It is an indication of renewed convergence in the ITCZ and possibly increased sea surface temps near the equator. The latest el Niño/la Niña forecast said that there is a 50% chance of a weak el Niño during the last 3 months of the year. It may already be happening. [...] A hui hou, Keoki

4:10:12 PM 8/15 Big Picture: [...]In the E’n N Pac, Tropical Depression 9-E has formed 600 miles S of Baja California and over 2,400 miles ESE of the Islands. The National Hurricane Center predicts that it will move NW and become a hurricane briefly before dissipating Sunday some 1,800 miles E of the Islands. In related weather news, a butterfly flapped its wings on a tributary of the Amazon River this afternoon, and according to Chaos Theory, may cause a water spout on the Aral Sea on the border of Kazakstan and Uzbekistan in the spring of 2007. More interesting to this observer is the consistent appearance of a tropical circulation that has been brewing fitfully in the GIFS model in the ITCZ S and SE of the Islands next week. It’s something to watch as a minor weather – maker next week. [...] A hui hou, Keoki

6:35:32 PM 8/14 Big Picture: trade winds stretch out for most of August while the high pressure system that is filling the N Pac will weaken fitfully. Local winds will be moderate and vary slightly in speed and direction. The cloudy remnants of a weak tropical disturbance described below will cause a few windward showers on the Big Island this evening and probably Tuesday, with isolated showers at other windward locations due overnight. Isolated brief afternoon convection in the interior of the Big Island will probably reappear Tuesday (it’s the season for that daily feature to be fairly common). Small surf everywhere as previously noted; the micro bump on S shores will linger Tuesday. The expected storm activity E of NZ is cranking up for bigger waves next week and possibly for the last week of August. I’ve updated the blog (click above below the media player) with a couple of satellite pix that illustrate today’s weather. A hui hou, Keoki

4:32:01 PM 8/13 Big Picture: despite some waffling by the main computer models, doesn’t look different from normal, mostly dry trades at this hour. The only identifiable local feature is a weak “screaming eagle” due to pass far S of the Big Island. The trailing clouds don’t look significant and there are sparse insignificant showers embedded in moderate trades for all islands. Skies look generally fair and dry for the next 24 hours, subject to now casting. Surf on all shores as previously noted. The S Hemi continues to look good for the 4th week of August and perhaps beyond. A hui hou, Keoki

Big Island Bow Wave Diverts Trade Wind Showers 8/14

2006-08-14T20:57:00.000-07:00

Trade wind showers from a weak trade wind disturbance
or "screaming eagle" whose center passed far S of the Big
Island are diverted by the Big Island to the SW and NW at
8:45 AM.

The remnants of the disturbance pass S and N of the
Islands at 11:30 AM.

A hui hou, Keoki

Surface Pressure Prognostic Charts for the Southern Hemisphere 7/25

2006-07-25T19:48:00.000-07:00

Stong storm forming E of NZ:

Southern Hemisphere NOGAPS surface pressure map
prediction for Thursday AM.

Southern Hemisphere GIFS surface pressure map
prediction for Thursday AM.

This storm is already churning away E of NZ.

A hui hou, Keoki

Unusual Cloud Formation Upstream of O'ahu 7/25

2006-07-25T17:43:00.000-07:00

Just upstream of O'ahu a minor vortex appeared today.
The sudden collapse of Hurricane Daniel allowed clouds
to form offshore that would ordinarily be clear in
advance of a tropical circulation.

The "corrugated" streets of clouds parallel to the
Ko'olaus indicates stable and breezy trades. These are
waves in the atmosphere that develope in the lee of
the Ko'olaus.

A hui hou, GM

Media Fashions in Climate Doom 7/21

2006-07-21T23:20:00.000-07:00

Various doomsday scenarios compete for public attention, a subset of which is climate doom. Besides climate change (warming/cooling/both/neither), championed by well-intentioned but historically and scientifically challenged, there is the not inconsiderable possibility earth's collision with a rogue asteroid or comet, a pandemic of bird flu and the like, or various forms of terrorism limited only by the evil imagination of creepy perpetrators.

Meanwhile, the media climate doomsday industry has undergone four swings in the last hundred + years.

A hui hou, Keoki

My Philosophy of the Hurricane Threat in Hawai'i 7/19

2006-07-19T19:31:00.000-07:00

(For a quick primer on hurricanes in Hawai'i, see the post below "Hurricanes in Hawai'i 6/20 ".)

My philosophy of the threat of hurricanes in Hawai’ian waters is that the stronger the storm, the less likely it is to hit the Islands from the E. History proves – and the peculiar dynamics of atmospheric structure mixed with geography – support this thesis.

One prominent "dynamic" is the bow wave effect on the trade winds exerted by the volcanoos of the Big Island, and to a lesser extent, Maui (Haleakala):

The bow wave effect diverts trade wind flow. The stronger the trades, and the stronger the trade wind temperature inversion, the stronger the effect. The leading or advancing edge of a tropical circulation exhibits such an inversion - accompanied by sinking air. This combo of sinking air in the trade winds and the trades themselves in advance of a storm creates a kind of back pressure evidenced by the bow wave. The geographical constellation that causes this in the Islands is missing in both the Caribbean and in the Philipines; the land masses are lower and are more broken or more blunt in the face of trade winds. The bow wave causes strong circulations to bounce off the Big Island.

In addition, there is the long-term statistical variation in hurricane generation in the Eastern and Central Pacific. The recent popularization of the notion of a Duodecadal Oscillation (or is it Multidecadal?) 20-year cycle in hurricane generation between a preponderance in the Atlantic/Caribbean versus generation in the E/C'tal Pacific puts the Atlantic/Caribbean in the middle of this cycle, while the cycle peaked in our neighborhood during the early 80s and 90s with hurricanes Iwa and Iniki. This indicator would put us in the middle of a minimum in tropical storm generation - one that could last another 10 or 20 years (the 2o-year cycle may be more like 30+ years). Also modifying this is a shorter-term cycle in the occurrance of el Niñ0/la Niña. We are curently experiencing el Niño-neutral conditions. The signals for these two phenomena are stronger in my opinion than evidence of secular or man-made global warming.

The main threat from these storms is high surf along E/SE exposures, and rain if they drop to Tropical Depressions. If the storm moves S of the Big Island and comes under steering currents that allow it to recurve, or if the storm forms S of the Islands in the first place and comes under similar influences, it becomes a serious threat to the Islands.

A hui hou, Keoki

Shaken Baby Syndrome 6/25

2006-06-25T07:19:00.000-07:00

In a recent news story, the case of a nanny charged with abuse after she was caught on video violently shaking her charge was either returned not guilty or not guilty on appeal. The argument in her favor was that a time lapse sequence of a rhythmic movement would seem violent if it were not viewed at the same frame rate it was captured. It would become Chaplinesque.

The same argument applies to showing before and after pictures of glaciers melting. To convince me that a glacier was steadily melting, it would require a long sequence of pictures with a high time resolution. The basic question of global warming is or should be Does an objective measurement of the random kinetic energy of the fluid hydrosphere show a trend that is statistically significant? This is an impossibly high bar of scientific probity because geoscience largely cannot be conducted in a laboratory. We are in the laboratory. And we cannot run replicated experiments in a controlled environment. It will thus be an imponderable, for a long time if not forever.

I just picked up a copy of Scientific American which I used to subscribe to until it went ballistic about global warming over 5 years ago. The Skeptic column by Michael Shermer reveals that the author has reached the flipping point by Al Gore's movie because of the glacier thing. He also sites other epiphanies about the collapse of civilization for this or that reason which seem strange to me. There is nothing new in these books that any casual student of history would be unaware of. The Skeptic has been shooting fish in a barrel for years. Yawn.

"Al's Big Adventure" 6/23

2006-06-24T00:27:00.000-07:00

"Albert Arnold Gore, the populist pope of eco-theology, is back. Now showing at an artsy theater near you, Gore's tiresome treatise on global warming has taken the urban illiterati by storm."

[...]

A number of good additional links in this article.

A hui hou, GM

Hurricanes in Hawai'i 6/20

2006-06-20T03:15:00.000-07:00

I found a very concise and informative overview of Hurricanes in Hawai'i from the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) at UH Manoa. I've been intending to add my own 2 cents but start with this and maybe I'll get around to that later.

A hui hou, Keoki

Scientists Respond to Gore's Warnings of Climate Catastrophe 6/14

2006-06-14T23:44:00.000-07:00

Professor Bob Carter of the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, in Australia gives what, for many Canadians, is a surprising assessment: "Gore's circumstantial arguments are so weak that they are pathetic. It is simply incredible that they, and his film, are commanding public attention."

Carter does not pull his punches about Gore's activism, "The man is an embarrassment to US science and its many fine practitioners, a lot of whom know (but feel unable to state publicly) that his propaganda crusade is mostly based on junk science.

A hui hou, Keoki

Swell Directions for Hawai'i 6/3

2006-06-03T07:47:00.000-07:00

To answer a caller's question about specific swell directions, I stick to broad categories for two reasons. One is that a swell doesn't come from a point but from range of directions, even if the generating fetch is staionary. But especially in Hawai'i, the typical winter swell begins from a WNW direction and clocks around to NW then N.

More rarely, a N swell will be generated and usually clock a little more NE'ly.

For S swells, it is less ambiguous. It is almost impossible for a true SW swell to be generated for the Islands. Most swell originates E of NZ. Because of the Earth's curvature, swell advances along a Great Circle towards the Islands, and the farther away the origin, the more the Great Circles converge. When it reaches the Islands, the apparent direction will be from 200º - 160º at most. Ususally much less.

Paradoxically, a S or slightly SSE swell appears to wrap into the W side of O'ahu better than a slightly SW one.

A strong S can wrap all the way around Ka'ena Point and cause knee slappers at places like Kammieland and a few others; other spots will be totally flat.

But the bottom line is that swell originates from a few well-known directions and converges to an even more narrow band. Using numbers is a little bogus in my opinion.

A hui hou, GM

Florida Governor's Huricane Conference 2006 6/2

2006-06-02T04:36:00.000-07:00

Today, C-span 2 carried coverage of the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference 2006, a comprehensive overview of the coming hurricane season. The high point was Wm Gray, the grand old man of hurricane forecasting, making a comprehensive and authoritative refutation of the global warming hysteria again being stirred up by presidential has-been wannabe Al Gore, and Time Magazine.

The program was on "Today in Washington". The conference was held on 5/10. I was unable to find out whether or when it will be rebroadcast in the near future, but I have emailed C-span an inquiry.

Yesterday, I watched the simpering endomorph Frank Rich gush about simpering endomorph Al Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth" on the Imus In the Morning show on MSNBC. Rich's scientific training includes many years of spreading his ample butt in darkened theaters and writing about his experience for the New York Times. What a laugh it is to see how casually scientific illiteracy has spread to the "elite" levels of opinion-makers. The shallow herd mindedness of masses brain washed by slick visual media without any reference, any hint, of the analytic difficulties, of the hard science so painfully accrued over millenia, that allows them to exist.

Now here's a video I'd like to see: Frank Rich and Al Gore kneeling in front of Abu Musab al-Zarkawi and his masked buddies as he unsheathes his scimitar.

United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project has a lot of related links.

Con cariño contundente, Jorge

East Coast Hurricane History for 150 Years 5/19

2006-05-20T02:56:00.000-07:00

A friend pointed this out to me. The only thing it leaves out is the "sampling error" caused by the fact that only since the advent of weather satellites (less than 50 years ago), has it been possible to identify every event. That's why if you eyball the first half of the record with the second half, the latter seems slightly more dense or active.

150 years of Hurricane history

Check out the animation "How Storms Destroy" which shows the relative severity of damage between a category 1 and higher categories up to 5. You can click through the tracks on a decade by decade basis in "150 Years of Ruin".

I haven't looked for areas outside of the West Atlantic/Caribbean Basin.

Pictures of Satan and Questions to Ask Him 5/15

2006-05-16T01:59:00.000-07:00

When you come across a scientist/nonscientist who is a believer
in the Religion of Global Warming, have them ponder these questions:

1. In mathematics, what is a "limit"?; what is the Mean Value Theorem?
2. Also in mathematics, what do the terms Normal Distribution, Mean, Median, and Average mean? What is a standard deviation?
3. What is a heat engine? How does it work? Who was Carnot?
4. What is the definition of temperature?
5. What is the Kinetic Theory of Gases?
6. When was the thermometer invented? What is it composed of and how does it work?
7. What is a sampling error? What does "calibration" mean?
8. What is the Pleistocene?
9. What is an algorithm? Give an example.
10. What do the terms analog and digital mean? Convert an arbitrary binary number to it's decimal equivalent and vice versa.
11. What is a time series? A multi-variate time series? Fourrier Analysis?
12. What is the hydrosphere?

Here are some answers:

1. a "limit" is when you say "Not tonight,honey. I'm too tired.
2. standard deviation. David to Fred, with Rodo Charlotte and me in between.
3. Carnot was a female with a fantastic heat engine. I think I saw her in "Barbarella".
4. Temperature is what you check if you are a Catholic and don't want to have babies----or if you do.
5. Too many beans make a bad first date. That one was easy.
6. See answer to 4.
7. This is a bad mistake. If you read temperature wrong you have a "calibration error".
8. Pleistocene was replaced reciently by vinyl.
9. Another easy one. An example would be Al Gore misreading the thermometer.
10. Where is Mickey Mouse when you really need him?

And:

Limit: What we're about to smash head-long into with the national debt.

Mean Value Theorem: The belief that everyone buys the idea of sacrificing just a little more in order to further enrich those who already have more than they know what to do with.

Normal Distribution: Sewage flows down-hill.

Mean: My grandfather when it came to money.

Median: Where you park your vehicle when you want to get rid of it.

Average: Too stupid to know better. See "2004 Federal Election".

Standard Deviation: "Different" but won't admit to it.

Heat Engine: Any political commentator with an audience.

How it works: Most political commentators haven't done a day's honest work in their lives.

Carnot: When it won't start no matter how hard you try.

Definition of Temperature: How hot do you think it is? Well, I don't agree. I'm freezing me bum off. See that lump on the ground? It just fell off. More to follow. Light the darn fire already, will you?

Kinetic Theory of Gases: Every fart brings a disgusted reaction, setting nearby humans into motion away from the source.

The thermometer was invented when someone grew tired of arguing about the definition of temperature (see above) and decided to make something he could point to for final authority on the matter.The thermometer is primarily composed of protons, neutrons, and electrons. A few exotic particles may work their way in every now and then.

Sampling error: we picked the wrong one. See "2004 Federal Election".

Calibration: a determination of just how stupid the mistake was.

Pleistocene: When the values of the far right were formed.

Algorithm: He has rhythm?

Analog: A science fiction magazine that was once pretty good.

Digital: A defunct computer manufacturer.

Conversion of binary to decimal: Use the other eight fingers as well and it'll become easier, Mr. Harper.

A hui hou, Keoki

Recent Big Pictures from HSW Saved for Posterity 5/1

2006-05-02T01:27:00.000-07:00

Monday, May 1, 200610:02:32 PM Big Picture: light N’ly winds are near a bottom and will become moderate trades by late Wednesday. The longer-term models continue to show some instability locally late Thursday/early Friday; sporadically and locally over the weekend, and possible heavy rain accumulations along windward sides, especially for the Big Island early next week. Bottom line: kinda tricky from Thursday – Monday, but with the weekend not looking bad at the moment.

There are lingering clouds from the minimal shear line of the weekend near the windward sides of Maui and the Big Island. Tuesday looks like a mostly dry and sunny day, but with winds dropping to their minimum, some afternoon clouds pushed to the SE sides of the N islands, a few scattered clouds along N sides in the minimum winds, and clouds where they are now.

The fading short-period N/NE windwave/swell mix is still mixed and will be a little blown by lingering N winds and seabreezes. Windward wind waves – nada.

The bright spot is the continued swell showing up at the Christmas Island bouy still 6’/17 seconds. A little S/SW’ly although I think what we will see here is more S/SE’ly. Should be building some Tuesday afternoon and should be solid overhead Wednesday. There are reinforcements on horizon for the weekend and for the middle of next week ~ 5/10.

A hui hou, Keoki

11:45:23 PM 4/30 Big Picture: a weak surface and upper level trough to the NE has caused winds to become light N’ly and a weak shear line to move through the Islands with a few minor windward and mauka showers. The remnants are stalled over the windward sides of Maui and the Hamakua Coast but moving slowly S. There are scattered embedded clouds in the N’ly flow that look mostly dry and will ride into N/NE exposures today.

N’ly winds are expected to continue Monday, slowly decreasing through Tuesday, then becoming more ENE’ly Wednesday and strengthening to moderate levels through the next 10 days. Long term models show some minor instability at upper levels late this week and sporadically through the early part of the following week. What ever it produces will be pale compared to the Rains of March.

The N’ly swell is blown out at N exposures and sideways blown at NW/NE exposures. A very small NNW bump is expected Thursday; a larger NW next weekend.

There is still only a faint hint of new S swell at Christmas Island. I’m still expecting that SE bump in the next couple of days with small reinforcements for the weekend. Wind waves will be flat until trades return. There is a little N’ly wrap at NE exposures.

A hui hou, Keoki

11:05:32 PM 4/29 Big Picture: light N’ly winds will continue until becoming more normal trade winds at midweek. There is a minimal shear line approaching from the N that should cause some minor clouds and brief showers along N/NE exposures Sunday. The longer term ensemble models continue to show a period of unsettled weather late next week. Nothing serious, just not dependable beach weather.

The current N swell is fading at N exposures and will tend to be blown by light N winds and sea breezes. A small NNW is due ~ Wednesday; another possible next weekend.

S exposures will have ankle snappers until at least Monday. The new storm activity E of NZ is expected to cause the S background to increase early next week, with reinforcements late next week and the following week. These are just fringe swells for the Islands, but should cause fun small waves in clean water.

Wind waves will be minimal until midweek.

A hui hou, Keoki

11:16:32 PM 4/28 Big Picture: moderate trades will become more N’ly and decrease Sunday as a weak surface/upper level trough forms to the NE of the Islands. This is expected to have little effect on Island weather but we’ll have to keep an eye on it. Moderate trades are expected to return after the middle of next week. Longer term, a couple of minor wet periods lurk on the horizon in ensemble forecasts for late next week and almost two weeks out, the following weekend. It’s just a hint that perfect beach weather can’t continue forever.

There are minor embedded upstream showers for overnight and early AM for windward/mauka areas. Saturday looks mostly sunny with this minor exception.

N’ly swell is building and should be in the 4’- 6’ range by late Saturday. It looks a little mixed and disorganized and local winds don’t look good for Sunday when it’s expected to fade. There are small NNW bumps on the horizon for ~ Wednesday and possibly the following weekend.

The S Hemi storms are forming as previously mentioned, E of NZ and out of the Island window. Some S/SE swell is expected to increase the background as early as Monday and be reinforced late next week. It should have crunchier, long-periods than this week’s long-lived short period SE swell. Which should be almost flat by Saturday AM.

¡Sí! se puede, pero ¿se habrá mejorado?, Jorgito

11:39:32 PM 4/27 Big Picture: trade winds continue with a few minor wrinkles on the horizon. Trades are expected to be moderate on Friday, then turn slightly NE’ly over the weekend, then continue in a light range from the ENE through midweek. Currently we have typical trades with a few scattered embedded showers.

Some models suggest a minor wet period any time from late Sunday till Tuesday affecting mainly windward sides. Long-term models are hinting at slightly wetter trade wind pattern the following weekend and the 2nd week of May. Real speculative, but there it is. These long-term models could flip flop tomorrow, especially during the seasonal change into summer.

The sneaker small WNW swell seems to be wasting itself overnight now. Coming swell action continues on track as previously noted. The S Hemi action looks good for small S/SE swell next week, but it will be a lot better for the Mainlaind and Central America.

Pau for now, Keoki

Stories About the February/March Rains 4/18

2006-04-18T23:50:00.000-07:00

Record-Breaking Rainy Month in Hawaii Clears to Reveal Blue Skies. Google search.

A hui hou, Keoki

Climate of Fear 4/13

2006-04-13T05:09:00.000-07:00

Global-warming alarmists intimidate
dissenting scientists into silence.

A hui hou, GM

Freeman Dyson opposes Kyoto Accord 4/11

2006-04-11T05:26:00.000-07:00

Among an impressive list of scientists who have asked the Canadian Government to open the debate is physics super-guru Freeman Dyson.

A hui hou, Keoki

Australian geologist questions global warming. 4/10

2006-04-11T00:24:00.000-07:00

Here are a bunch of links to Australian geologist Bob Carter who takes a sceptical view of global warming that is sync with my own.

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/incon/stories/s1444123.htm ("albedo" misspelled as "albader")
http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/new_page_9241.htm
http://www.climatechangeissues.com/cci-ccb17.php
http://www.lastsuperpower.net/docs/gobalwarm-oz
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article355020.ece
http://www.sepp.org/NewSEPP/newsepp.html

These links are just the first few that turned up with this Google search which has many more:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Bob+Carter+Australian+geologists+doubts+global+warming

A hui hou, GM

The World Thermostat Party 4/9

2006-04-09T22:12:00.000-07:00

Tim Flannery, "The Weather Makers" http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0871139359/qid=1144597972/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/002-4803882-4745637?s=books&v=glance&n=283155

"With world climate on a knife-edge [Paul] Krutzon's (?) vision of Internationally agreed-upon geoengineering projects becomes mandatory. Civilization will hover on the brink for decades or centuries during which period the Carbon Cycle will need to be strictly controlled by large and small geoengineering projects alike. Under this final scenario, humans would have no choice but to establish an Earth Commission for Thermostatic Control. That sort of commission could easily grow from the Kyoto Protocols...."

Flannery goes on (on a program on Booknotes) to speculate that if we don't take the initiative to stop messin' with Mother Nature, the ECTC will become internaional bankers in carbon credits, replacing other currency. They will then field an international armed force to bring recalcitrant nations to heel, become a world court, enforce population control, and a world government more Orwellian than 1984.

These folks have become so carried away with their own clairvoyance that they begin to sound like modern physicists: "Physics has achieved such a rarified state that it's impossible to know when physicists are joking"--Sam Harris; The End of Faith: Religion, Terror, and the Future of Reason

A hui hou, GM

Notable Quotes 4/8

2006-04-08T06:26:00.000-07:00

Two notable quotes from the History Channel program “Weather…or not”.

“There is in effect a lot of extreme weather here in the United States and as a result, it becomes sort of an empty vessel for people’s anxieties, fears and worries.” – Ted Steinberg, “Acts of God”

“The weather by definition is strange. I tell my students that the essence of chaos and unpredictability is an unevenly heated rotating fluid. The Atmosphere. It’s unpredictable. It does interesting, strange things. And just sort of accept that interesting strange things are what make life interesting and strange.” –Hugh Willoughby

A hui hou, Keoki

Explanation of Miserable March 4/3

2006-04-03T09:31:00.000-07:00

Scroll down to the messages of 3/31 and 3/26 near the bottom for my interpretation of the Really Big Picture that was responsible for the 6 weeks of rainy weather that finally ended the weekend of 4/1.

A hui hou, GM

Zonal Flow Returns to the N Pacific 3/31

2006-03-31T04:27:00.000-08:00

This satellite picture (water vapor) taken at 1 AM 3/31/2006
shows the main polar jet to the N has flattened out into an
East-West or zonal flow. This cuts off the branch to the south
that was sending pulses of energy and heavy showers over
the Islands. Click on it to enlarge. See the post of 3/26 below.
Westerly momentum is becoming more consolidated in the
main jet.

Suerte, Jorgito

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds 3/27

2006-03-27T07:30:00.000-08:00

Last Sunday, 60 Minutes had a Global Warming segment that was notable in that the reporter, Steve Crofts, stumbled onto the basic premise of the issue when he asked his subject if the campaign against Global Warming means that "we can control the climate". Not to be outdone, ABC is spending two days this week on the subject.

On This Morning with George Stephanopolous, the gov of Montana was interviewed. He moaned about the demise of the glaciers of Glacier Park and GS abetted with a question about whether the glaciers could be saved. It turns out the gov. has a solution. Turn to coal gasification, the conversion of coal into natural gas which is mostly methane, ethane, propane, and butane, in descending order. The first four hydrocarbons. Not coincidentally, Montana has 1/3 of the coal reserves in the US, which, in turn, has been described as the Saudi Arabia of coal.

The gov. claims that gasified coal can be turned into heat energy without the collateral production of CO2, or rather that the carbon dioxide can be "sequestered", along with all the other noxious byproducts of carbon-based energy production. But it this is true, it is also true of any use of carbon for energy. Does the gov have an agenda?

This Morning claims that 80% of the public believes that global warming is real and a problem that gov't can address. I believe that 99% of the public and even scientists themselves are dishonest and/or incompetent. But if it's true that we - with the help of gov't - can control the climate, I dearly hope they'll be able to fire up the CO2 machines to prevent the next Ice Age.

A hui hou, GM

Ω Block (Omega Block) in the N Pacific 3/26

2006-03-26T23:42:00.000-08:00

This satellite photo shows the NE Pacific at 3AM on 3/26/2006.
Click on it for a larger view of the details. It shows an omega block
in the polar jet stream (the red line), so-called because it resembles
a greek Ω. When this kind of circulation sets up so far north, a small
branch breaks off and it allows cut-off lows to form beneath it (L) to
the west of HAWAI'I. These branches happen when a westerly mo-
mentum deficit developes in the main circulation.

These lows and the block have been wobbling about but semi-
stationary for over a month. The L's send periodic waves of
moisture over the Islands. Recent models strongly suggest that
this long period of "unsettled" weather will change by the end of this
week.

Suerte, Jorgito

Saved from HSW 3/2

2006-03-02T04:38:00.000-08:00

I saved the following because it preserves a prescient forecast I was able to make 10 days before it happened:

5:30:34 PM 2/20
Big Picture: cloudy and somewhat unpredictable. Models and 10-15 day outlooks show a precip max near windward sides in the next 24 hours, clearing from midweek through next weekend (not necessarily sunny), then renewed instability for the end of February and the beginning of March. Moderate trades today should become more variable again Tuesday through part of the weekend.
Currently, high cloud still obscures low cloud under it but there appears to be trade wind showers upstream that could ride in at any time and bank up against windward sides.
No significant swell on the horizon, except for increasing N swell late this week. NE windwaves/swell mix should increase a little by midweek for NE exposures. Some stirring of the S’n Hemi in coming days.
Hasta pronto, Jorge

Faith-based Science 2/12

2006-02-12T22:43:00.000-08:00

Creationism, meet Global Warming. Al Gore <=> Pat Robertson.

Global Cooling descends on Eastern Europe 1/19

2006-01-19T19:20:00.000-08:00

Arctic Temperatures Blanket Russia

Cold wave brings disruption to new EU states in East Europe

Also, cold fronts continue to bring subzero temps to Mexico in January. Other cold weather: Not by Fire but by Ice.

Greenpeace Co-founder Praises Global Warming 1/13

2006-01-13T21:05:00.000-08:00

Greenpeace co-founder praises global warming.

La Niña conditions developing 1/12

2006-01-12T18:29:00.000-08:00

Check the Climate Prediction Center's latest ENSO diagnostic discussion

Hawai'i Outlook for January

2005-12-28T19:13:00.000-08:00

5:01:09 PM 12/27/2005

Big Picture: The longest-term models are finally showing a break in the near month long dry spell – about 1/9. Zonal flow in the jet stream which has been zipping storms from W=>E in the N Pacific will begin to meander and buckle, causing stronger high pressure to build periodically N of the Islands and introduce increased trade wind showers. The transition will be slow.

Variable winds prevail today and little change is expected through the weekend. Light E’ly winds will begin to filter back over the S’n islands. Isolated minor showers will begin to reach those areas ~ next weekend or the following week. Before that, we will just see isolated patches of cloud, mainly in the afternoon.

Global Cooling descends on the Northern Hemisphere 12/25

2005-12-25T20:33:00.000-08:00

The N and Ctl highlands and mesas of Mexico have been experiencing an early winter with temperatures up to ~ 15º C below freezing and lots of snow. Galavisión reported this during the last 10 days. This Mexican network also reported that heavy snowfall in Korea just before Christmas broke records of 76 years.

A hui hou, GM

Island Holiday Forecast 12/25

2005-12-25T20:28:00.000-08:00

Island weather continues uneventful and bone dry at the height of the traditionally wet winter season. A slow, fitful change from variable winds to light trades is on tap through the last week of December, with more steady moderate trades in early January but continued mostly dry with very minor trade wind showers. After the big swells of the last week of 2005, the NW background will settle down to a more manageable background of overhead waves and good local beach conditions.

A hui hou, GM

Island Holiday Forecast 12/13

2005-12-14T00:42:00.000-08:00

"Under this scenario, we can expect generally dry conditions with minor fronts approaching from the NW and fizzling as they approach. With just variable winds, the holidays look really balmy and quite a contrast to the Mainland. It looks like another major outbreak of very cold air for the eastern half of the Mainland just before Christmas. (This is still speculation but an educated guess.) I’ve seen this numerous times before."

(I'm posting longer-term forecasts here because the regular ones are deleted from HSW.com after 7 days.)

Senator Kerry Succombs to Global Warming 12/9

2005-12-10T02:01:00.000-08:00

Senator Kerry succombs to Global Warming.

Weather Elsewhere 12/7

2005-12-07T11:24:00.000-08:00

Weather elsewhere: Global Cooling Descends on Midwest.

Tongan Canoe Near Kiribati 12/6

2005-12-06T23:45:00.000-08:00

Global Cooling 11/26

2005-11-27T01:34:00.000-08:00

Some recent headlines: Heavy snowfall lashes Europe. Also Cold snap grips Europe. And a story on Galavisión, Mexican TV News. "Low temperatures claimed their first victims: four dead when the temperature reached -10º C or 14º F in Temosachi, Chihuahua" (11/25/05). Finally, "The recent cold weather is more likely the result of gradual heating of the atmosphere, which causes more extreme storms to happen.

Secret Worlds: The Universe Within

2005-11-25T00:06:00.000-08:00

View the Milky Way at 10 million light years from the Earth. Then move through space towards the Earth in successive orders of magnitude until you reach a tall oak tree just outside the buildings of the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory in Tallahassee, Florida. After that, begin to move from the actual size of a leaf into a microscopic world that reveals leaf cell walls, the cell nucleus, chromatin, DNA and finally, into the subatomic universe of electrons and protons.

State of Hawai'i Shark Page

2005-11-20T23:14:00.000-08:00

Check the state's official shark page

Factoid: “meteorology”

2005-11-17T22:39:00.000-08:00

Factoid by popular demand: “meteorology” is shortened from “hydrometeorology”, referring to hydrometeors which are flying objects in the atmosphere formed from “water substance” – snow, ice, rain, etc. Meteors themselves are objects that enter the atmosphere from space, as I recall.

Waimea Directional Spectrum

2005-11-17T02:55:00.000-08:00

Here's a link to the Waimea Bay spectrum that shows the current direction of the swell at that location.

Factoid: Paralax Error

2005-11-17T02:40:00.000-08:00

Westerly swell often misses some Island spots. This is because of island shadowing and parallax error (look it up, home gamers).

Off topic quote (11/10)

2005-11-17T02:36:00.000-08:00

Off topic quote Off topic quote of the day (11/10) : “The Marines I have seen around the world have the cleanest bodies, the filthiest minds, the highest morale, and the lowest morals of any group of animals I have ever seen. Thank God for the United States Marine Corps!” - Eleanor Roosevelt, First Lady of the United States, 1945